At a Glance
- Production fell below 500,000 tonnes as cane shortages cut factory throughput nationwide.
- Immature harvesting and aging mills reduced recovery rates, erasing early 2025 gains.
- Import surge steadied prices but exposed Kenya’s growing dependence on external sugar supplies.
Kenya’s sugar industry has slid back into crisis, with production falling sharply in 2025 below half a million tonnes, and reviving long-standing questions about the sector’s sustainability.
Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows output dropped 28.4 percent year-on-year to 440,652 metric tonnes between January and September, down from 615,499 tonnes a year earlier.
The downturn erased gains made in the first quarter and underscored the fragility of an industry still trapped in boom-and-bust cycles driven by cane shortages, weak farm practices, and inefficient milling capacity.
Cane shortages choke factory throughput
At the heart of the slump is a shortage of mature sugarcane. Years of overharvesting, delayed replanting, and weak extension services left millers scrambling for raw material in 2025.
Cane deliveries fell to 4.58 million tonnes from 6.3 million tonnes in the same period last year, forcing factories to operate far below capacity.
Millers increasingly harvested cane at 10–13 months, well below the optimal 16–18 months needed for proper sucrose development. The result was lower recovery rates and falling sugar yields, with production hitting a low of 32,760 tonnes in May before only a modest rebound in August.
Regulatory intervention halts milling
Alarmed by widespread immature harvesting and cane poaching, the Kenya Sugar Board ordered a three-month suspension of milling operations in western Kenya from July 14. Seven factories, including Mumias, West Kenya, Butali, Nzoia, Naitiri, Busia Sugar, and Olepito, were affected.
The shutdown was designed to protect future harvests, but it also deepened short-term supply constraints, contributing to September’s steep 54.2 percent year-on-year drop in output to just 33,845 tonnes, one of the weakest monthly performances in recent years.
Imports step in to stabilise prices
To cushion consumers and contain inflationary pressure, the government expanded duty-free sugar imports, mainly from Uganda, Eswatini, and South Africa.
KNBS data shows sugar, molasses, and honey imports surged 56.9 percent in the second quarter, pushing up the overall import bill alongside iron, steel, and industrial machinery.
While imports helped stabilise retail prices, they also highlighted Kenya’s growing dependence on external supply whenever domestic production falters—a recurring pattern that continues to undermine investor confidence in the sector.
A familiar crossroads for the industry
Kenya’s sugar sector has faced repeated reform attempts over the past two decades, including privatisation plans, factory bailouts, and regulatory overhauls. Yet structural issues persist: fragmented smallholder farming, inconsistent enforcement of harvesting rules, aging mills, and chronic underinvestment in cane development.
The long-term recovery will hinge on sustained replanting programmes, stricter cane management, and capital investment to raise factory efficiency. Without those changes, the industry risks remaining stuck in a cycle where shortages trigger imports, imports depress local incentives, and production weakens again.
For now, the 2025 slump serves as another reminder that stabilising Kenya’s sugar supply will require more than short-term fixes, demanding coordinated reform from farms to factories.
