At a Glance
- Glencore shifts Congo strategy, prioritizing copper in 2026 as cobalt export limits hit volumes.
- DRC cobalt exports remain constrained, forcing Glencore to store surplus amid quota uncertainty.
- Rising copper prices and demand from EVs, grids and AI support Glencore’s copper focus.
Glencore said it will focus more heavily on copper production in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2026, as restrictions on cobalt exports continue to weigh on output and sales of the battery metal.
The Swiss mining and commodities group issued its 2026 copper production guidance on Thursday but did not provide a forecast for cobalt, citing continued uncertainty. Copper will take precedence in the company’s Congolese operations, where cobalt exports remain subject to government-imposed limits.
Glencore DRC cobalt exports constrained
Glencore produced 33,500 tonnes of cobalt in the DRC last year, a 5% decline from 2024. Much of that output could not be shipped after authorities imposed an export ban in late February 2025 to address excess supply that had pushed prices lower. The ban was replaced in October with export quotas for producers.
Exports did not resume before the end of 2025 due to lengthy approval procedures. While unused quotas are typically forfeited, Congolese authorities allowed producers to carry over late-2025 allocations until March 31, 2026.
For 2026, Glencore said it can export up to 22,800 tonnes of cobalt, including the carried-over volumes, compared with a projected 18,800 tonnes in 2027. Those levels remain well below the combined output of its two Congolese mines, Katanga and Mutanda.
Without higher quotas, the company said surplus cobalt will be stored and sold when market conditions permit.
Copper prices surge on demand
Cobalt is largely produced as a byproduct of copper or nickel, and Glencore’s Congolese mines follow that pattern. Unlike cobalt, copper exports from the DRC face no restrictions, and prices have continued to climb.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange reached a record $14,527 per tonne on Thursday. Prices rose more than 40% last year and have already set new highs in early 2026.
Goldman Sachs expects copper prices to reach $15,000 per tonne by 2035, citing rising demand from power grids, data centers and energy infrastructure. Neil Welsh of Britannia Global Markets said expectations of increased spending on artificial intelligence, robotics and electrification are already supporting prices.
Glencore bets on copper growth
Glencore said prioritizing copper makes commercial sense under current conditions. Its Congolese mines produced 247,800 tonnes of copper in 2025, up 10% from a year earlier and representing nearly a third of total output.
The company has not released detailed country-level forecasts for 2026 but said global copper production could reach 870,000 tonnes, up from 851,600 tonnes in 2025. It remains unclear whether that will translate into higher volumes from the DRC.
Glencore, founded in the 1970s, employs about 150,000 people in 35 countries and supplies metals used in electric vehicles, batteries and renewable energy systems. Earlier this month, it held early-stage talks with Rio Tinto about a possible deal that could create the world’s largest mining company.
