Africa’s growth draws US, China as global powers vie for influence

Africa is drawing attention like never before as the world’s largest economies recalibrate their global strategies. With the International Monetary Fund projecting Africa to achieve the highest real GDP growth of any region, between 4.3 percent and 4.4 percent from 2026 to 2029, the continent is emerging as a critical arena for economic influence. The United States, with a $29.2 trillion economy, and China, at $18.7 trillion, are increasingly directing policy tools and trade incentives toward Africa, each seeking to solidify its standing in global finance, technology, and trade. Combined, their economies total $47.9 trillion, yet both see strategic value in nurturing African markets and resources.

Two weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump renewed the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a 25-year-old trade framework granting duty-free access to 32 African countries, China countered with its own expansive initiative. Starting May 1, 2026, Beijing will implement zero-tariff treatment for imports from all 53 African countries with diplomatic ties, while negotiating joint economic pacts and expanding market access through mechanisms like its “green channel.” The U.S.-based AGOA had allowed $8.23 billion in African exports in 2024, led by South Africa and Nigeria, with smaller nations like Lesotho also relying on the accord. Its expiration last September left thousands of jobs vulnerable and forced exporters to absorb new tariffs, sparking demonstrations in Maseru as textile workers protested cuts to employment.

China foregoes $1.4 billion tariffs

China’s approach is deliberately different. Economists estimate Beijing will forgo $1.4 billion in tariff revenue to boost African exports, strengthen diplomatic ties, and enhance its soft power on the continent. Trade between China and Africa is heavily weighted toward raw materials: in the first eight months of 2025, bilateral trade totaled $222.05 billion, with Chinese exports surging 24.7 percent to $140.79 billion, while imports from Africa rose just 2.3 percent to $81.25 billion. Africa’s trade deficit with China widened to $59.55 billion, reflecting dependence on crude oil, copper, cobalt, and iron ore, while importing higher value-added machinery, electronics, and renewable energy equipment. Solar panel imports from China reached 15,032 megawatts between July 2024 and June 2025, a 60 percent increase from the previous year.

The broader economic picture shows Africa’s growth steadily improving. According to the United Nations’ World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026, the continent is expected to expand by 4 percent in 2026 and 4.1 percent in 2027, up from 3.5 percent in 2024 and 3.9 percent in 2025. Growth will be uneven: East Africa, powered by Ethiopia and Kenya, may reach 5.8 percent in 2026, while North Africa slows slightly to 4.1 percent and Southern Africa registers 2 percent. High debt servicing, limited fiscal space, and food inflation remain challenges, with average public debt expected to hit 63 percent of GDP in 2025, absorbing nearly 15 percent of government revenue. Around 40 percent of African countries are over-indebted or at high risk, prompting restructuring under the G20’s common framework.

Africa: Economic ring for U.S., China, Russia

Beyond trade, Africa has become a stage for broader U.S.-China rivalry over technology, economic dominance, and military influence. The contest spans artificial intelligence, quantum computing, semiconductors, clean energy, and rare earth minerals. The U.S. is restricting China’s access to advanced chips while promoting domestic supply chains, whereas China invests heavily in local innovation to assert influence and standards globally. These tensions extend into policy and trade incentives, with both nations seeking footholds in developing regions. In a world where global powers are repositioning and recalibrating, Africa’s growing economies, natural resources, and markets have never been more central. For policymakers, the continent represents not just opportunity, but a proving ground for influence, trade, and strategic partnerships that will shape the next chapter of global economic engagement.

Meanwhile, Russia is increasing its economic presence in Africa, focusing on Egypt. Moscow and Cairo recently announced a grain exchange under the BRICS framework to expand trade in grains, legumes, and oilseeds, aiming to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar. Russian investment extends across energy, manufacturing, and infrastructure: Zarubezhneft operates offshore oil blocks, Lukoil has invested $22.5 million in Egypt’s Eastern Desert, and Rosneft holds 30 percent of the Zohr gas field. Russia supplies nuclear fuel for Egypt’s El Dabaa plant and supports technical development, while negotiating a Free Trade Agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union. Combined, these initiatives strengthen Egypt’s role as a regional hub and position Africa as a critical theater in the global contest for economic influence.