MTN Group forecasts massive rebound after MTN Nigeria posts $820 million profit

MTN Group, Africa’s largest telecom operator, is expected to see a substantial rebound in earnings for the 2025 financial year following a strong performance by its Nigerian subsidiary, MTN Nigeria. The Nigerian unit reported a profit of more than $820 million, surpassing expectations and signaling a recovery from last year’s results under CEO Ralph Mupita.

In a trading update released on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, MTN projected earnings per share (EPS) between R10.62 ($0.66) and R11.68 ($0.72), reversing a R5.31 ($0.33) loss recorded in 2024. The swing of R15.93 ($0.99) to R16.99 ($1.05) represents a turnaround exceeding 300 percent.

MTN shares rise on strong outlook

Headline earnings per share (HEPS), a measure of core operating performance, is forecast at R12.64 ($0.78) to R12.84 ($0.79), up from R0.98 ($0.06) in FY24, an increase of over 1,000 percent. The results highlight a recovery from the previous year’s depressed earnings and point to improved financial stability across the group.

Following the update, MTN shares rose 1.1 percent on the JSE, reaching R209.92 ($13.06) and pushing market capitalization to R384.9 billion ($23.94 billion). Investors responded positively to the outlook, anticipating that the group’s performance would mirror that of MTN Nigeria, led by CEO Karl Toriola.

MTN Nigeria revenue climbs 46 percent

MTN Nigeria reported revenue growth from N3.56 trillion ($2.48 billion) in 2024 to N5.2 trillion ($3.84 billion) in 2025. Growth was supported by strong performance across data, voice, fintech, and digital services.

Profit after tax jumped to N1.11 trillion ($819.25 million), reversing a N400.4 billion ($295.23 million) loss the prior year. Toriola described the year as “a significant turning point,” with retained earnings restored to N400.4 billion ($295.43 million) and shareholders’ equity rising to N548.7 billion ($404.86 million).

Free cash flow surges 215 percent

The company posted a net foreign exchange gain of N90.3 billion ($66.62 million), compared with a N925.4 billion ($682.75 million) loss in 2024, reflecting reduced dollar exposure and settlement of outstanding foreign obligations. Free cash flow surged 215.5 percent to N1.2 trillion ($885.34 million), even amid increased network investment.

MTN Nigeria ended the year with net cash of N104.8 billion ($77.32 million), reversing a negative N719.5 billion ($530.84 million) in 2024. The board proposed a final dividend of N15 ($0.01) per share, bringing total 2025 payouts to N20 ($0.014), marking a return to dividends after last year’s losses.