Nigeria’s inflation eases to 15.06% in February but monthly pressures rise

Nigeria’s inflation showed a modest easing in February 2026, offering a small reprieve for households grappling with rising costs. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that headline inflation fell slightly to 15.06 percent, down from 15.1 percent in January.

While the year-on-year numbers suggested gradual stabilization, month-to-month price pressures told a different story. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the standard gauge for changes in the average cost of goods and services, rose to 130.0 in February from 127.4 in January, signaling sharper short-term price increases.

Annual inflation eases, monthly rises

Analysis of the figures reveals a nuanced picture. Annual headline inflation edged down, but monthly inflation accelerated to 2.01 percent in February from a contraction of -2.88 percent in January. Urban consumers felt the pinch more acutely, with prices rising 2.55 percent over the month, reversing the -2.72 percent decline recorded in January.

Rural inflation, while lower, also climbed to 0.71 percent month-on-month, up from -3.29 percent. On a yearly basis, urban inflation measured 15.53 percent, still lower than the 28.49 percent seen in February 2025, while rural areas recorded 13.93 percent, compared with 22.73 percent a year earlier.

Food prices, a key component of household budgets, moderated on an annual basis but surged month-on-month. Year-on-year food inflation stood at 12.12 percent, down from 26.98 percent in February 2025. Yet, month-to-month food costs jumped 4.69 percent, reversing a -6.02 percent decline in January. Staples were the main drivers of this increase.

Over the 12 months ending February 2026, average food inflation settled at 19.08 percent, compared with 37.4 percent in February 2025. Core inflation, which strips out volatile items like agricultural produce and energy, also displayed this pattern: 15.88 percent annually, down from 25.66 percent, but with a monthly rise of 0.89 percent after falling -1.69 percent in January.

CBN inflation forecast faces new pressure

The data underscores the persistent challenges facing Nigerian households. Despite the slight retreat in headline inflation from 15.1 percent in January and 15.15 percent in December 2025, the broader cost of living remains under pressure. Keeping inflation below the 15 percent threshold in the near term will be challenging, particularly as fuel prices continue to climb.

Crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, the highest since July 2022, amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Petrol prices in Nigeria have surged past N1,000 per liter in mid-March from under N700 in February, amplifying transport and distribution costs that ripple through the economy.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had projected in its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook that headline inflation would ease to an average of 12.94 percent this year, supported by moderating food prices and lower costs of premium motor spirit. Yet, the recent jump in fuel prices threatens to undermine these expectations, as manufacturers, distributors, and retailers pass on higher operational costs to consumers.

For Nigerian households, the data paints a clear reality: even as annual inflation softens, the short-term pressures on wallets are intensifying, highlighting the delicate balance policymakers must strike between stabilization and affordability.