Fuel scarcity hits Kenya as Iran war disrupts shipments

Kenya’s independent fuel retailers are experiencing shortages as the Iran war and the broader conflicts in the Middle East disrupt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, exposing the country’s dependence on Gulf crude and the limited availability of alternative supply sources.

Martin Chomba, chairman of the Petroleum Outlets Association of Kenya (POAK), which represents transporters and independent retailers controlling 68 percent of the national market, said roughly 20 percent of Kenya’s 3,100 fuel outlets are already experiencing shortages. He warned that if tensions persist, “in two weeks it will be a total crisis with no fuel in most outlets.”

Frozen prices fuel retail shortages

The strain stems from frozen domestic pump prices set by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA), while global oil costs rise. “Real shock is on the way,” Chomba said, citing potential hoarding ahead of expected price increases. POAK urged the government to allow private procurement alongside government-to-government deals with Gulf suppliers.

While EPRA’s Director General, Daniel Kiptoo Bargoria, insisted that Kenya has “sufficient stocks,” market behavior suggests otherwise. Ruling party lawmaker Nelson Koech reported that speculation, panic buying, and hoarding—particularly by oil marketers—have already pushed demand higher over the past fortnight.

Africa faces fuel supply disruptions

Across Africa, countries are feeling immediate pressure on fuel supplies. About one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint now threatened by conflict. Kenya, entirely dependent on Middle Eastern imports, is particularly vulnerable. Energy consultancy CITAC estimates that roughly 75 percent of refined fuel in East and Southern Africa comes from the Gulf.

In response, regional governments are exploring alternatives. Nigeria’s billionaire industrialist Aliko Dangote, whose $20 billion refinery is the largest on the continent, has emerged as a potential supplier. Dangote emphasized that the current challenge is not pricing but availability, a problem that may persist. South Africa has reportedly opened talks for a 12-month supply agreement to reduce its dependence on Middle Eastern oil.

Fuel shortages test East African markets

While immediate shortages are limited, the pressure is visible. Kenya requires fuel marketers to maintain at least three weeks of stock. Ethiopia has instructed stations to prioritize public transport and urged citizens to conserve energy, while in Mogadishu, fuel prices have nearly doubled. South Africa, for now, maintains sufficient reserves, but the ripple effects across the continent underscore the fragility of Africa’s dependence on Middle Eastern oil.