Nigeria moves to capitalize on oil surge amid global supply tensions

As global markets react to supply disruptions following tensions involving Iran, Nigeria is aiming to benefit from the recent surge in crude prices, which have risen above $100 per barrel.

The country plans to increase oil production by about 100,000 barrels per day in the coming months, according to Bashir Bayo Ojulari, group CEO of the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC).

Nigeria prepares to offset supply gaps

Speaking on the sidelines of the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston, Texas, Bayo Ojulari said Nigeria averaged about 1.6 million to 1.7 million barrels per day last year and hopes to reach 1.8 million barrels per day in 2026.

When asked whether Nigeria could help offset the crude shortfall caused by the U.S.-Israeli tensions with Iran, Bayo Ojulari said, “We are building that capacity. We are not like Saudi Arabia, but we can contribute.”

During the conference, he added that NNPC completed a full review of its portfolio last year and is now implementing changes to improve project execution, ensuring initiatives are delivered on budget and on time after previous delays.

Nigeria eyes gains from oil surge

The rise in oil prices could strengthen Nigeria’s current-account balances, even as higher crude costs often weaken African currencies and stoke inflation. Nigeria, however, benefits from limited petroleum imports thanks to the $20 billion Dangote Refinery, owned by industrialist Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man.

Higher crude prices translate into stronger export earnings and government revenue. Dangote has said his 650,000-barrel-a-day refinery could boost shipments of refined fuel to Europe if market conditions remain favorable.

Nigeria targets 3 million barrels

At the 9th Nigeria International Energy Summit in Abuja, President Bola Tinubu, represented by Vice President Kashim Shettima, emphasized the country’s goal of raising crude output to 3 million barrels per day by 2030.

Officials say the Petroleum Industry Act has clarified the sector and restored investor confidence, with final investment decisions on major projects exceeding $8 billion. Current crude production stands around 1.6 million barrels per day, with the Project One Million Barrels Per Day initiative aiming for 2.5 million barrels per day by 2027.

Natural gas is playing an increasingly important role, with domestic supply surpassing 2 billion cubic feet per day for the first time. This growth supports electricity generation and industrial activity, reflecting Nigeria’s broader energy ambitions and the country’s efforts to capitalize on a favorable oil market.