Glencore signals possible Rio Tinto deal revival as coal prices rise    

Glencore CEO Gary Nagle is signaling a possible revival of merger talks with Rio Tinto following a sharp increase in global coal prices, according to three investors who met company leaders in Australia this week.

Earlier this year, the two miners explored a $240 billion tie-up, which would have combined Glencore’s marketing and copper operations with Rio Tinto’s operational strength to meet rising global demand for copper.

Talks ended in February after the companies failed to agree on valuation. Under UK rules, Rio Tinto cannot restart negotiations for six months.

“This is definitely not going away, unfortunately,” one investor said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “But I don’t see a merger making sense right now.” 

Rio Tinto CEO Simon Trott told reporters in February that the companies could not justify a shared value, effectively ending the first round of talks.

Coal Prices Boost Glencore’s Case 

Glencore’s shares have outperformed Rio Tinto’s this year, giving the Swiss miner room to argue for a larger share of any combined entity. The difference partly reflects a jump in coal prices since January, while iron ore prices have eased. 

Investors said Glencore viewed Rio’s valuation as overly tied to the spot prices of key commodities on the day talks became public.

Nagle argued a more forward-looking approach would better reflect potential gains. Since January 7, coal prices and Glencore shares have risen 26%, while Rio’s shares increased 9%. Glencore’s stake in a combined company now accounts for about 35% of market value, up from 31.5% at the time of the initial talks. 

Glencore also expects Rio’s iron ore business to face headwinds as supply rises, further shifting the relative value between the two companies.

Investor concerns and governance hurdles 

Some Australian investors remain skeptical about a deal. Five funds sent a letter to Rio Tinto’s board in January citing governance worries, including ongoing corruption probes involving Glencore.

While Glencore considers this group a small but vocal minority, any merger would need approval from both the Australian government and a majority of ASX shareholders. 

Investors note that Glencore’s roadshow is gaining traction locally, but operational synergies remain limited. “It will take more than short-term share gains to sway Rio,” one investor said, pointing to disagreements over Glencore’s undeveloped Argentinian copper assets.

CEO Nagle pushes clean energy focus

Founded in 1974, Glencore is among the world’s largest diversified natural resource companies, producing and marketing over 60 commodities.

Operating in 30+ countries with roughly 140,000 staff, Glencore under CEO Gary Nagle has intensified its focus on metals critical for clean energy, including copper, nickel, and cobalt, positioning the firm as a key player in the global sustainable mining and energy transition market.

Glencore is also exploring a listing on the Australian Securities Exchange, seeking to broaden its investor base following the collapse of talks with Rio Tinto.