Aliko Dangote’s refinery becomes key as Europe, Africa face fuel supply strain

Aliko Dangote’s $20 billion refinery, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, on the outskirts of Lagos is emerging as a crucial source of jet fuel at a time when global supply chains are under pressure. The Nigerian billionaire’s facility, which produces 650,000 barrels per day, has drawn attention not only from African governments but increasingly from Europe, where disruptions in the Middle East have tightened the availability of refined products. With nearly 21 percent of global seaborne jet fuel flows cut off due to effective closures of the Strait of Hormuz, European buyers are scrambling for alternatives, and Dangote’s refinery is now on the radar as a reliable source.

Europe faces jet fuel shortfall, West aids

According to Kpler, European imports could drop by nearly 300,000 barrels per day, with 247,000 barrels per day normally heading to Northwest Europe. Traditional Asian backup supplies are being diverted to meet stronger regional demand, pushing buyers to look west. Cargoes from India’s Jamnagar refinery, which might have offset shortages, are now limited due to EU sanctions tied to Russian crude. “Eastern barrels are increasingly unavailable as strong Asian pricing and export restrictions in China, and potentially South Korea, divert cargoes away from Europe,” the report said. In this context, West Africa’s refined product surplus from Dangote’s refinery could serve as a critical lifeline.

Kpler’s recent report revealed that the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote refinery exported about 89,000 barrels per day of jet fuel in 2025. Despite Nigeria’s policy prioritizing domestic supply, exports remain viable, highlighting the region’s structural surplus. Analysts warn that other sources, including the U.S. Gulf Coast, cannot fully replace lost Middle Eastern volumes due to infrastructure limits, strong Latin American demand, and specification differences. Exports rarely exceed one million tonnes per month, though January 2025 reached a record 307,000 barrels per day. Logistical constraints in Europe, such as refinery configurations and diesel commitments, further complicate efforts to cover the shortfall.

African nations turn to Aliko Dangote

On the African continent, demand is rising sharply. South Africa is reportedly pursuing a 12-month supply deal with Nigeria to reduce reliance on Middle Eastern imports. About 75 percent of refined fuel in East and Southern Africa comes from the Middle East, according to CITAC, an energy consultancy. Dangote himself emphasized that the current challenge is not pricing but availability. “Right now, it is not about pricing; it is about availability,” he said, noting that the situation may persist for some time. Other African countries, including Ghana and Kenya, have also approached the refinery for potential supplies.

While no immediate shortages are reported, the strain is apparent. South Africa has sufficient supply for the coming weeks, while Kenya requires marketers to maintain at least three weeks of stock. Ethiopia has directed fuel stations to prioritize public transport and urged citizens to conserve energy. In Mogadishu, prices have nearly doubled amid rising costs. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are affecting global markets, highlighting the role of the Dangote refinery. Its large-scale production, export capacity, and domestic-first allocation provide a stabilizing effect. For both Europe and Africa, the refinery is a key source of supply, supporting aviation and energy needs in a market facing structural gaps and international uncertainty.