Aliko Dangote refinery drives petrol prices up 82 percent in Nigeria this year

The $20 billion Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals, owned by Africa’s richest man Aliko Dangote, is reshaping Nigeria’s domestic fuel market amid ongoing global supply strain, while higher prices continue to increase pressure on consumers nationwide. 

Across Africa and beyond, countries are grappling with fuel shortages and rising costs. In Nigeria, the refinery has helped ease a long-standing challenge—limited domestic refining capacity—by boosting the supply of petrol and other refined products. That has reduced reliance on imports, but it has not shielded consumers from price increases.

Price stability masks upward trend

The company said this week that its ex-depot price for Premium Motor Spirit, or petrol, remains unchanged for now, a move it says is aimed at supporting market stability. It added that holding prices steady, despite cost pressures, reflects efforts to cushion the economy and limit the impact of global volatility on local fuel supply.

Still, the broader trend tells a different story. Since the start of 2026, the refinery has raised petrol prices by about 82 percent, pushing rates to around N1,250 ($0.91) per liter from N699 ($0.51) at the beginning of the year. The increases reflect higher crude costs, foreign exchange constraints and distribution expenses within Nigeria’s downstream sector.

Market participants said a brief pause in issuing pro forma invoices earlier this week further tightened supply, adding upward pressure across the value chain. Even so, the refinery has continued the nationwide fuel supply, reinforcing its growing role in the domestic market. 

Dangote refinery anchors domestic supply

Globally, oil prices remain elevated, with Brent crude trading above $100 per barrel. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including talks between the United States and Iran, have kept markets on edge. While signs of a potential agreement have emerged, disruptions to shipping routes—particularly around the Strait of Hormuz—have already affected supply chains.

Higher crude prices are feeding into fuel costs worldwide, and Nigeria is no exception. Even if global tensions ease, it could take weeks for supply flows to normalize. For now, the Dangote refinery remains central to Nigeria’s fuel supply, balancing steady output with price adjustments that reflect both local realities and global market shifts.