Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, targets $250 billion valuation on $45 billion expansion plan

Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote is putting a $45 billion expansion plan at the center of a long-range bet that he says could lift the valuation of his industrial empire to more than $250 billion by 2030, according to remarks he made during a recent conversation with Nicolai Tangen, which manages Norway’s $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund.

The disclosure, made in a discussion last week, comes as Dangote—whose net worth is listed by Forbes at $32.2 billion—maps out a multi-year investment program spanning energy, manufacturing, logistics, and fertilizer production across Africa. He described the $45 billion expansion as a groupwide funding push that would support new projects while strengthening existing industrial assets across the continent.

Regional refining capacity shift

At the center of the plan is a geographic expansion into Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, and Ethiopia, as Dangote Industries looks to deepen its footprint in East Africa. He noted that several countries are increasingly seeking to develop their own refining capacity after disruptions in supply chains linked to the Middle East, a shift he said is reshaping regional demand for domestic industrial capacity.

Dangote said the group is also accelerating investment in liquefied natural gas in Nigeria, alongside wider gas infrastructure designed to reduce flaring in southern and eastern regions. The plan includes transporting gas to western Nigeria for an LNG facility with a capacity of 12 million tons, structured around processing trains of roughly 6 million tons each. He explained that the system is designed around Nigeria’s associated gas resources, which require treatment before liquefaction or use, stating, “you have to treat it before you can now use it to regasify.”

He added that the group is actively reviewing income streams, revenue structures, and funding requirements between 2026 and 2030 to identify financing gaps and insurance needs. That process, he said, is shaping decisions to sell parts of the business, bring in additional investors, and concentrate capital in core operations such as cement, where production is targeted to reach 100 million tons.

Dangote projects tenfold EBITDA growth

Aliko Dangote said the expansion is expected to be financed largely through internal cash generation and structured financing, with the potential to lift group revenues to $100 billion by 2030. He also projected earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization rising from about $3 billion last year to more than $30 billion by 2030, describing it as a tenfold increase in earnings ambition tied to scale and operational expansion.

The plan aligns with Dangote Industries Limited’s broader Dangote Vision 2030, which outlines an ambition to build a $100 billion pan-African industrial platform through expanded production, deeper continental investment, and stronger human capital development. The strategy is designed to reduce import dependence while supporting job creation and industrial output across key markets.

A central pillar of the program remains the scale-up of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, located in the Ibeju-Lekki Free Zone. Built at an estimated cost of between $20 billion and $22 billion, the refinery has a current processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day and is being expanded toward about 1.4 million barrels per day over the next 30 months. Dangote said the facility is expected to anchor the group’s energy and export strategy as crude sourcing diversifies across Nigeria, Angola, Libya, and the United States.

LNG project targets 12 million tonnes

Alongside refining, the group is advancing a liquefied natural gas project in Nigeria designed to capture and commercialize gas that is currently flared. The project targets about 12 million tonnes of LNG capacity, supported by a wider infrastructure network aimed at improving domestic supply and exports. Dangote said the strategy is tied to revenue stability and foreign exchange resilience, with about 80 percent of future earnings expected to be dollar-denominated, reducing exposure to currency fluctuations.

In cement, the group is targeting 100 million tons of annual production capacity across Africa, with operations already spanning 14 countries. The expansion reflects a long-running focus on producing locally what African markets have historically imported, while scaling industrial output across multiple regions. Infrastructure is also part of the expansion strategy, with more than $3 billion committed to roads, ports, and logistics systems. These investments include a mechanism for cost recovery through tax deferrals over a three-year period. A deep-sea port project near Lagos is also under development to support heavy industrial imports and exports linked to the group’s broader manufacturing and energy activities.

Institutional investor discussions ongoing

Funding for the expansion is expected to come from a mix of internal cash generation and external financing. Dangote said the group is working with African and international lenders, including regional development banks and commercial institutions, while selectively bringing in external investors for large-scale projects. He also said the group is in discussions with institutional investors, including Norges Bank Investment Management, ahead of a planned listing process in the coming months.

The expansion footprint also includes fertilizer. Earlier this week, Dangote raised planned investment in a fertilizer complex in Ethiopia to more than $4 billion, up from $2.5 billion previously disclosed. The update followed a site visit with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The revised project now includes a 110-kilometer natural gas pipeline, a 120-megawatt power plant, a polypropylene packaging facility, and a 2-million-tonne-capacity NPK blending plant, expanding the project into an integrated agro-industrial hub.