Geregu Power Plc, a leading electricity producer formerly controlled by Nigerian billionaire Femi Otedola and now chaired by Nigerian politician, senator, and former governor Abdulaziz Yari, has lost more than $555 million in market value in 2026, as investor sentiment weakens on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) amid persistent liquidity constraints.

The company’s market capitalization has declined by about 27% to N2.06 trillion ($1.51 billion) as of July 24, 2026, positioning it among the worst-performing large-cap stocks on the NGX for the week. The drop reflects a broader reassessment of risk by investors, who are increasingly wary of macroeconomic headwinds and structural challenges within Nigeria’s power sector, despite Geregu Power’s status as one of the exchange’s most capitalized firms.

Mounting receivables weigh on outlook

Geregu Power’s financial disclosures highlight persistent pressure from unpaid obligations within the electricity value chain. As of September 2025, receivables stood at N170 billion ($116 million) net of impairments, with gross exposure estimated at roughly N500 billion ($341 million). Earlier in March 2025, outstanding obligations were around N400 billion ($273 million), rising close to N500 billion by year-end—underscoring chronic liquidity bottlenecks in the sector.

From peak valuation to sharp correction

At its peak in 2025, Geregu ranked as the eighth most valuable stock on the NGX, with a market capitalization of N2.85 trillion ($1.95 billion), representing about 3.06% of the market when its share price traded at N1,140.

However, sentiment shifted significantly following ownership changes and weaker earnings momentum. On Dec. 29, 2025, Otedola sold a 77% controlling stake in Geregu for $750 million to MA’AM Energy Ltd., an entity linked to Yari, through the acquisition of a 95% stake in Amperion Power Distribution Company Limited. The transaction transferred control of the power producer while Otedola retained a minority 1.05% stake. He indicated the proceeds would support participation in the planned IPO of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

Earnings slump deepens investor caution

Investor concerns intensified after Geregu reported a sharp earnings decline in the first quarter of 2026, reversing its strong 2025 performance.

Revenue fell 42.6% to N18.24 billion ($13.38 million), down from N31.76 billion ($23.3 million) a year earlier. Profit before tax dropped 75.1% to N3.25 billion ($2.39 million), while profit after tax declined 79.8% to N2.1 billion ($1.54 million). Earnings per share fell to 84 kobo from N4.17.

Despite the earnings contraction, Geregu Power recorded modest balance sheet improvements. Shareholders’ equity rose to N60.73 billion from N58.63 billion at the end of 2025, supported by retained earnings, while total liabilities declined by approximately N7.05 billion to N239.33 billion.

A pioneer in Nigeria’s listed power sector

Founded in 2006, Geregu Power began supplying electricity to Nigeria’s national grid in 2007 through its 435-megawatt plant. The company became a trailblazer in October 2022 as the first electricity generation firm to list on the Nigerian Exchange.

Under Otedola’s leadership, a $94 million upgrade in 2014 improved operational efficiency and capacity utilization. Before that, in 2013, Amperion Power, backed by partners including China’s State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company, acquired the asset, setting the stage for its eventual public listing.

Yari steps into the spotlight

Yari’s emergence as controlling shareholder marks a significant shift in Geregu’s leadership narrative. A former teacher turned politician, he built a career spanning more than two decades in public service before expanding into energy investments through MA’AM Energy. His academic background includes studies in public administration, finance, and investment management, with exposure to institutions such as the University of Salford and the London School of Economics.

His acquisition of Geregu Power places him at the center of one of Nigeria’s most closely watched corporate transitions, as investors assess whether new leadership can stabilize performance and restore confidence.

Geregu’s outlook now hinges on its ability to navigate sector-wide liquidity constraints, improve collections, and restore earnings momentum. With Nigeria’s power market still grappling with structural inefficiencies, the company’s next phase will depend on balancing operational resilience with strategic repositioning under its new ownership.