Zimbabwe plans to establish a $500 million reserve to protect food supplies against an expected El Niño-induced drought, with the government proposing $250 million in cash and another $250 million for grain purchases in its 2027 national budget, Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube said Wednesday.

The allocation, due to be outlined in the budget next month, comes as Zimbabwe braces for a sharp decline in maize production. The government projects a harvest of 1.6 million metric tons in the 2027 season, nearly 30% below the 2026 crop as dry conditions threaten agricultural output.

A widening food supply gap

Zimbabwe consumes about 2.2 million metric tons of maize annually, including approximately 400,000 tons used for livestock feed. The projected harvest would leave the country facing a substantial supply gap, increasing the importance of grain reserves, imports and government intervention to protect households from shortages.

Ncube said the government had already purchased about 200,000 metric tons of maize from local farmers for its strategic grain reserves. The planned funding would provide additional resources to buy supplies and respond to potential food shortages if drought conditions undermine the coming harvest.

Drought threatens economic growth

Zimbabwe declared a national disaster in 2024 after an El Niño-related drought left millions of people needing food assistance. El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon that alters weather patterns worldwide, can disrupt rainfall and intensify drought in vulnerable agricultural regions.

The country has struggled to produce enough food since land seizures under former President Robert Mugabe disrupted commercial farming around 2000. Climate change has added to the pressure on agricultural production, leaving the economy exposed to increasingly difficult weather conditions.

The government has also cut its 2027 economic growth forecast to 3.5% from an earlier projection of 5%, citing the expected drought’s impact on agriculture. The proposed reserve is intended to strengthen the country’s ability to secure food supplies while limiting the economic damage from another poor harvest.