Mozambique’s long-awaited liquefied natural gas expansion is moving closer to a critical phase, as new analysis from Standard Bank highlights the ExxonMobil-led Rovuma LNG project as a major contributor to the country’s economic outlook.

The development, located in the Rovuma Basin in Cabo Delgado province, is being led by ExxonMobil and is approaching a final investment decision, a key step before construction moves ahead.

The project sits among Africa’s largest proposed energy investments and has drawn attention for its potential fiscal impact on Mozambique.

Standard Bank’s assessment points to long-term gains in output, public revenue, and employment, while also noting the scale of upfront capital required before production begins around 2030.

At the same time, the study frames the project as a test of Mozambique’s ability to translate natural gas resources into broader economic gains.

It projects sustained revenue flows over three decades and highlights the importance of policy stability and investment execution in shaping outcomes.

Economic impact and revenue outlook

Standard Bank estimates that Rovuma LNG could add an average of about $11 billion a year to Mozambique’s gross domestic product over its operating life.

Total state revenues could reach as much as $150 billion over 30 years, supported by roughly $30 billion in pre-production investment.

The report also projects about 151,000 jobs across construction, supply chains, and operations.

Annual tax revenue is expected to average nearly $4 billion, while foreign exchange inflows could reach $9 billion a year, helping support the country’s external accounts.

Growth, income, and public finances

Beyond headline revenue figures, the study points to wider economic effects, including a possible 21% increase in average household income.

Mozambique’s real economic growth rate could also rise from 3.3% to about 4.1% annually under a long-term scenario running through 2056.

Standard Bank also forecasts that a sovereign wealth fund, established in 2025, could accumulate up to $81 billion over time.

The fund is expected to help stabilize public finances and provide savings for future generations.

Policy outlook and investment context

Standard Bank Mozambique CEO Bernardo Aparício said revenues from the project could help reduce sovereign debt and expand government spending on infrastructure, education, and health.

He added that the scale of LNG investment creates an opportunity to strengthen long-term fiscal planning.

João Guirengane, head of Corporate and Investment Banking, said the project could also support Mozambique’s national development goals by broadening industrial activity and creating more jobs across sectors linked to energy production.

Standard Bank, founded more than 160 years ago and led by Chief Executive Sim Tshabalala, operates across more than 20 African markets and international financial centers.

The bank has increasingly expanded its focus on digital banking and corporate advisory services as it adapts to shifting client demand and competition.