Sibanye says EVs to reach 35% of global car sales by 2034

Sibanye Stillwater, the South African mining group and one of the world’s leading producers of platinum group metals (PGMs), expects electric vehicles (EVs) to account for about 35% of global car sales by 2034, a more conservative outlook than some industry forecasts.

The company said the slower-than-expected adoption of EVs could help sustain demand for platinum and palladium, key metals used in internal combustion engine vehicles, even as the global energy transition accelerates.

EV adoption seen moderating demand shift
Sibanye’s projection falls below estimates by the International Energy Agency, which sees EVs reaching roughly 50% of global car sales by 2035 (this figure should be verified from the latest IEA outlook, as projections are subject to updates).

According to Kleantha Pillay, Sibanye’s executive vice president for sales and marketing, EV adoption forecasts have been revised downward in recent years, reflecting changing regulatory timelines and market realities. Policy adjustments, including the European Union’s easing of emissions targets and proposals by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to delay stricter vehicle pollution rules, are expected to extend the lifespan of internal combustion engines, supporting continued demand for PGMs.

Declining mined supply tightens market outlook
Sibanye expects global mined platinum output to fall about 15% from current levels by 2034, driven by declining reserves and cautious capital investment among producers.

South Africa, which accounts for roughly 70% of global platinum supply (this share is widely cited but should be verified for the most recent year), has seen miners scale back expansion plans due to long-term demand uncertainty.

Platinum production is projected to decline from about 6.2 million ounces in 2019 to roughly 4.7 million ounces by 2034, Pillay said. Separate industry data from Johnson Matthey indicates global output could fall to approximately 5.46 million ounces in 2026, down from about 5.56 million ounces the previous year.

Palladium supply also expected to weaken
Production of palladium, another key PGM used in autocatalysts and a substitute for platinum in some applications, is also forecast to decline by about 15% to 5.6 million ounces by 2034, according to Sibanye.

At the same time, recycled PGMs, seen as a secondary supply source—are expected to remain broadly stable at around 5 million ounces, limiting their impact on overall market balances.

Balancing energy transition and metal demand
Sibanye-Stillwater is one of the world’s largest producers of platinum group metals, including platinum, palladium, rhodium and ruthenium. The company also ranks among South Africa’s leading gold producers and has expanded into battery metals and recycling operations across multiple continents.

While EV adoption poses a structural challenge to PGM demand, Sibanye’s outlook suggests a more gradual transition, with tightening supply potentially offsetting part of the demand erosion. This dynamic could support market stability for platinum and palladium in the medium term, as the industry navigates shifting mobility trends and evolving environmental regulations.