De Beers, the world’s largest diamond producer, has raised its 2026 diamond production target despite an extended shutdown at its Venetia mine in South Africa, betting that increased ownership of a Canadian mine will help offset weakness across the global diamond market.

The revised target of 25 million to 28 million carats, announced on Tuesday, October 20, compares with its previous forecast of 21 million to 26 million carats. However, the higher outlook comes as the company’s average realised diamond price has fallen 37% to $97 per carat since the beginning of the year.

The shift matters for Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Angola, where diamond mining remains economically significant and governments are positioning themselves for a greater role in De Beers’ ownership. The company’s production outlook and financial performance could influence the value of its assets as a potential ownership change approaches.

Canadian mine lifts production outlook

De Beers’ higher production forecast does not signal an acceleration of mining activity across its existing operations. Instead, the revision reflects a planned increase in its ownership of Canada’s Gahcho Kué mine, where the group reached an agreement earlier this month to acquire partner Mountain Province Diamonds’ 49% stake.

The transaction would give De Beers full control of the asset. The company plans to reflect the additional production attributable to its increased ownership in its fourth-quarter results, helping explain the higher annual target.

The revised outlook comes despite an 11% year-on-year decline in third-quarter production to 6.8 million carats in 2026. Of that total, 400,000 carats came from Venetia, where De Beers processed ore extracted before mining operations were suspended.

Diamond prices remain under pressure

Venetia has been shut since July, with the suspension planned to last two years amid persistent difficulties in the diamond market. Demand and prices have weakened over several years, putting pressure on producers to align output with market conditions.

De Beers also expects production to decline in Botswana because of scheduled maintenance at its Jwaneng mine. The company said it would continue to monitor developments in the rough diamond market and adjust production to demand.

The 37% fall in its average realised price to $97 per carat highlights the challenge facing the group: raising its production target does not necessarily translate into stronger revenue when diamonds are selling at substantially lower prices.

African governments eye De Beers stake

The production outlook carries additional significance as Anglo American prepares to sell its 85% stake in De Beers. Botswana, which owns the remaining 15%, is seeking to increase its holding, while Namibia and Angola have also expressed interest in participating in the transaction.

For these governments, De Beers represents more than a mining investment. Its operating performance affects the outlook for diamond-producing economies, while a potential change in ownership could reshape national participation in the industry.

Founded in South Africa in 1888, De Beers operates across exploration, mining, trading, retail and marketing in 35 countries. Headquartered in London, the group returned to Angola in 2022 after a decade-long absence, signing two 35-year mineral investment contracts with the government.

The agreements established joint ventures with state-owned diamond company Endiama to explore and mine in northeastern Angola, marking De Beers’ return after leaving the country in 2012.