Glencore expects its sprawling trading business to generate more than $5 billion in adjusted operating profit this year, Chief Executive Officer Gary Nagle said, as surging copper volumes and higher commodity prices offset production headwinds across its global mining operations.

The Swiss natural resources powerhouse confirmed its bullish financial target Friday alongside third-quarter production data. The results showed underlying copper extraction running well ahead of last year’s pace, powered by richer ore grades in central Africa and mine sequencing gains in South America.

Trading unit powers ahead

“As communicated in our recent Marketing guidance methodology update, we expect 2026 full-year Marketing Adjusted EBIT to exceed $5 billion,” Nagle said, emphasizing that commercial desks continue to capture healthy margins across energy products, metals, and bulk commodities.

The trading division’s momentum arrived as Glencore’s mining portfolio navigated asset divestments and mine closures. For the first nine months of 2026, own-sourced copper output rose 3 percent to 598,600 metric tons, expanding from 583,500 metric tons during the same period in 2025.

“After adjusting for disposals and closures (Mount Isa copper and Kidd), YTD copper production was 12 percent higher than the comparable 2025 period,” Nagle said. Mount Isa closed late last year, while the Kidd mine sale closed in June, removing 49,700 tons of output.

African mines lead surge

Operational gains in the Democratic Republic of the Congo anchored the performance. Glencore’s African Copper division lifted output 37 percent to 210,600 tons, helped by higher mining rates. The Mutanda operation surged 44 percent to 51,700 tons, while Kamoto Copper Company advanced 35 percent to 158,900 tons.

In Peru, Glencore’s 33.75 percent share of copper at the Antamina open pit climbed 36 percent to 122,300 tons as operators prioritized copper seams over zinc. Those gains comfortably cushioned a 22 percent decline at Antapaccay and winter weather disruptions at Chile’s Collahuasi mine.

By contrast, cobalt extraction plunged 52 percent to 13,700 tons due to Congo’s strict export quota regime, which remains active through 2027. Rather than refining mixed ore into saleable hydroxide, Glencore is holding unrefined cobalt in solution to curb processing costs until export restrictions ease.

Smelters restart after idling

“We have also continued the progressive restart of our ferrochrome smelting operations, with Boshoek restarting in September and Wonderkop in October, following Lion earlier in the year,” Nagle said. Attributable ferrochrome production jumped 29 percent quarter-on-quarter to 125,000 tons after power deals were finalized.

Broader mining performance proved mixed across industrial assets. Own-sourced zinc production dropped 23 percent to 547,200 tons following mine retirements and planned grade changes, while nickel output rose 4 percent to 54,600 tons behind steady gains at integrated Canadian and Norwegian refining operations.

Energy coal output held steady at 73.9 million tons year-to-date, rising 8 percent sequentially during the third quarter. South African thermal coal exports rose 8 percent on improved rail capacity, while steelmaking coal fell 13 percent to 21.5 million tons following operational delays in western Canada.

Price rally backs outlook

Favorable price realizations across global commodity exchanges provided strong tailwinds. Cash copper averaged $13,433 per metric ton through September, up 40 percent from 2025, while gold averaged $4,543 per ounce, silver surged to $73 per ounce, and Newcastle thermal coal climbed 24 percent to $131.

“Full year 2026 production guidance for our key commodities has been maintained, with zinc and energy coal expected towards the upper end of their respective ranges, copper and steelmaking coal towards the lower end and nickel around the middle,” Nagle said.

With fourth-quarter copper output projected to accelerate at Collahuasi and smelters ramping back up in South Africa, Glencore remains firmly positioned to hit its full-year volume guidance and comfortably clear its $5 billion trading profit threshold before the calendar year closes.