Congo set to overtake Ethiopia as sub-Saharan Africa’s fifth-largest economy

The Democratic Republic of Congo is on track to overtake Ethiopia as sub-Saharan Africa’s fifth-largest economy this year, according to projections from the International Monetary Fund, in a shift driven by minerals, currency moves and policy changes in recent times.

The IMF estimates Congo’s gross domestic product will reach $123 billion in 2026, edging past Ethiopia’s $122 billion. South Africa remains the region’s largest economy, followed by Nigeria, Angola and Kenya. The rankings reflect how uneven growth, external financing conditions, and exchange rate shifts continue to shape economic size across sub-Saharan Africa.

Congo issues $1.25 billion dollar bond

In Congo, the expansion is anchored in mining, where demand for battery minerals has lifted activity and drawn capital. The country is the world’s top producer of cobalt and a major supplier of copper, used in EV batteries and industrial manufacturing. Earlier this year, Congo also raised $1.25 billion through its first dollar-denominated bond issuance, signaling improved access to global investors after years of volatile sentiment toward frontier markets.

Private investment has followed. KoBold Metals Co. is expanding exploration work in lithium, while Zijin Mining Group Co. is advancing a major lithium project in the country. Together, these projects reflect Congo’s growing integration into supply chains tied to electric vehicles, energy storage and electronics manufacturing.

Currency performance has also supported the broader economic picture. The Congolese franc has gained more than 25 percent against the US dollar over the past year, strengthening local purchasing power and easing import costs. In contrast, Ethiopia’s birr has fallen about 17 percent since authorities loosened foreign exchange controls in 2024. The government in Addis Ababa has since spent at least $1.35 billion to stabilize the currency.

Ethiopia has also faced pressure from fuel shortages tied to global shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz, adding strain to domestic prices. Even so, the IMF expects Ethiopia’s economy to expand 9.2 percent this year, compared with Congo’s projected 5.9 percent growth. Across sub-Saharan Africa, overall growth is forecast at 4.3 percent.

Congo resource reforms, regional mining shifts

Policy direction is also shaping Congo’s outlook. The government has moved to tighten oversight of strategic minerals, including cobalt, coltan and germanium, through a planned national reserve framework managed by the Strategic Mineral Substances Market Regulation and Control Authority. The agency’s head, Patrick Luabeya, has said the goal is to stabilize supply and reduce sharp price swings, while still supporting state revenue.

Congo previously introduced a cobalt export ban followed by a quota system that altered global supply flows. Market data showed cobalt prices more than doubling from recent lows during that period, although producers have reported delays in implementing the new quotas. Glencore has also noted that Congo recorded no cobalt exports in 2025 under the current system.

Across the region, governments including Zimbabwe, Mali and Niger are also tightening control over mineral exports as they seek to retain more value from natural resources. Taken together, Congo’s rise in the regional rankings reflects stronger mining revenue, currency gains and tighter resource management, even as both Congo and Ethiopia continue to navigate uneven growth paths shaped by global demand and domestic constraints.