Egypt faces rising wheat costs as black sea conflict disrupts supplies

Egypt’s wheat market is facing a fresh test as attacks on Black Sea ports, ships and grain facilities disrupt trade and raise the cost of supplies. For a country that relies heavily on imported wheat, the latest disruption could quickly become a problem for importers, consumers and government finances. 

More than 82% of Egypt’s wheat imports in the first half of 2026 came from Russia and Ukraine, leaving the country particularly exposed to shipping delays and tighter supplies. 

The timing is important. Russia and Ukraine remain major suppliers to global wheat markets, while attacks on shipping and export infrastructure are making some buyers look for supplies elsewhere. Chicago wheat futures have also climbed sharply as traders assess the risk of longer disruptions. 

For Egypt, the concern goes beyond the price of grain. Wheat is central to the country’s bread supply, and higher import and freight costs could add pressure to a government already working to keep staple food prices under control.

Black Sea disruptions raise Egypt wheat costs 

The disruption is already affecting trade. S&P Global reported that freight costs from the Black Sea to Egypt had risen to about $70 a metric ton, while Russian wheat exports in August were expected to fall sharply. 

Ukraine is also struggling to move grain through alternative routes. As of Aug. 25, as many as 70 vessels were waiting near the Danube’s Sulina Canal, with limited daily traffic through the waterway slowing exports.

Egypt looks beyond Russia and Ukraine 

Egypt has bought wheat from Romania, France, Bulgaria and other suppliers as it seeks to reduce its reliance on the Black Sea. But switching origins is not always straightforward because longer routes can mean higher freight and insurance costs. 

The price gap can be significant. Reuters reported that Australian wheat could cost as much as $320 a ton, compared with about $260 to $280 for Black Sea supplies, making diversification more expensive for Egyptian buyers.

Food security remains the bigger concern 

The pressure is especially important for Egypt because subsidized bread is a major part of the country’s food system. A prolonged rise in wheat and shipping costs could increase the burden on public finances while making procurement more difficult. 

S&P Global, a provider of commodity pricing, market intelligence and financial information, has been tracking the impact of the Black Sea disruptions on wheat prices, freight and trade flows. Its latest assessments show how quickly shipping risks are feeding into Egypt’s wheat market. 

Egypt’s immediate challenge is to secure enough wheat at manageable prices. If Black Sea shipments remain disrupted, stronger local procurement and supplies from alternative exporters could become increasingly important to protect the country’s bread supply.