The disruption to Middle Eastern energy exports has removed about 36 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas from the global market, leaving buyers in Asia and Europe looking for supplies from producers outside the Gulf.

The missing volume is nearly as large as the 39.8 million tonnes of LNG exported by Africa in 2025, underscoring the size of the supply gap and the challenge of replacing those cargoes quickly. Shell disclosed the 36-million-tonne estimate at the Gastech energy conference in Bangkok.

The conflict has prevented Qatar and the United Arab Emirates from moving most of their LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route that carries about one-fifth of global LNG trade.

The disruption has sent Asian spot LNG prices toward $30 per million British thermal units, nearly three times the roughly $10 level recorded before the conflict. For buyers seeking to secure cargoes without relying on the Strait of Hormuz, African producers are emerging as an alternative.

Middle East LNG disruption creates opportunity

Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea and Mozambique are among the African countries positioned to benefit from the shift in demand. Nigeria was Africa’s largest LNG exporter in 2025, shipping about 14.8 million tonnes, according to International Gas Union figures. Algeria followed with about 9.7 million tonnes.

Combined, the two countries exported about 24.5 million tonnes last year, well below the 36 million tonnes of supply now missing from the Middle East. Africa’s main advantage is its location. Nigeria, Angola, Equatorial Guinea and Mozambique can supply international markets without vessels passing through Hormuz, while Algeria has established pipeline and LNG links to Europe.

But higher prices do not mean African producers can quickly replace the lost Middle Eastern supply. Much of their LNG is committed under long-term contracts, while some existing facilities face ageing infrastructure, unreliable gas supplies and other production constraints.

Nigeria LNG is targeting the end of 2027 to start operations at its roughly $10 billion Train 7 project. The expansion is expected to increase production capacity from 22 million tonnes to about 30 million tonnes a year.

LNG disruption could lift African revenues

New projects in Senegal, Mauritania and Mozambique could add more supply over time, but they cannot fill the immediate gap left by Qatar and the UAE. For African producers with uncommitted cargoes, the more immediate benefit may be higher revenue rather than a sharp increase in export volumes.

Shell expects between 150 million and 200 million tonnes of new global LNG production capacity to come online over the next five years. Until that supply arrives, a prolonged disruption in the Middle East could keep LNG prices elevated and increase the value of alternative cargoes from Africa.