Malawi’s $35 million wheat import market is giving Kazakhstan an opening to push deeper into Sub-Saharan Africa, as the Central Asian grain producer looks for new buyers beyond its established North African markets.

Malawi imported about 73,000 tonnes of wheat worth $35 million in 2025, with Australia and Russia supplying about 95% of the country’s imports, according to trade data cited by UkrAgroConsult. Kazakhstan is now exploring whether it can break into that supply chain.

The opportunity is emerging as the two countries build a new economic relationship following the establishment of diplomatic ties. Kazakh and Malawian officials have identified agricultural cooperation, including potential wheat supplies, as an area for closer engagement.

A market dominated by few suppliers

For Kazakhstan, Malawi offers something its existing African markets do not: an opportunity to establish a position in Sub-Saharan Africa’s wheat trade.

Malawi’s dependence on imported grain leaves the country exposed to changes in supply, prices and availability from a relatively concentrated group of exporters. In 2024, the country imported wheat and meslin worth about $58.5 million, according to World Bank trade data.

Russia accounted for $26.1 million of those imports, while Latvia supplied $14.9 million and Canada $10.5 million. Kazakhstan would therefore enter a market with established demand but also strong competition from exporters already serving Malawi.

Kazakhstan’s grain export push

The proposed Malawi trade fits into a much larger expansion of Kazakhstan’s grain exports. Kazakhstan exported about 494,000 tonnes of wheat and meslin to African markets in 2025, a dramatic increase from approximately 7,700 tonnes in 2021. Algeria, Morocco and Egypt have absorbed most of those shipments, making North Africa the centre of Kazakhstan’s African wheat business.

Moving into Malawi would give the country a route into a different part of the continent and potentially broaden its customer base. Kazakhstan has the production base to support that ambition. The Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that the country harvested about 18 million tonnes of wheat in 2025, around 20% above its five-year average.

For the 2025/26 marketing year, Kazakhstan’s total cereal exports are forecast at about 10 million tonnes, including 9 million tonnes of wheat and 1 million tonnes of barley.

Diplomacy could become trade

The wheat discussions come less than two weeks after Kazakhstan and Malawi formally established diplomatic relations.

The countries signed a joint communiqué on Sept. 25, 2026, on the sidelines of the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Beyond agriculture and food security, the new relationship covers mining, digitalization and education.

No specific wheat supply agreement has been announced yet. But if Kazakhstan can secure commercially viable shipments, Malawi could become its first significant wheat foothold in Sub-Saharan Africa — and a potential starting point for wider agricultural trade across the region.