Appian Capital Advisory plans to deploy $5 billion to $7 billion globally over the next 12 to 24 months, with about $2 billion earmarked for Africa, as policy uncertainty threatens to divert mining investment toward Latin America.

The London-based private equity firm sees regulatory predictability as a critical factor in determining where capital flows.

Michael Scherb, Appian’s chief executive officer, said governments risk losing investment when changes to mining policies undermine confidence in long-term projects.

Mining assets require substantial upfront capital, making regulatory stability particularly important for investors weighing whether to develop deposits or redirect funding to competing jurisdictions.

Policy risks reshape investment

“The geology doesn’t change, but government policy does,” Scherb told Reuters on Tuesday. “It’s costly for investors to leave, but it’s also costly for governments because that capital simply moves elsewhere.”

His comments highlight a challenge for African governments seeking greater returns from mineral wealth while competing for international funding.

Changes to mining codes, higher royalties and demands for greater local participation have become central to negotiations between governments and mining companies across the continent.

Where Appian sees opportunity

Appian views Morocco, Namibia and Botswana as mining jurisdictions with strong investment appeal, while evaluating opportunities in Ghana, Ivory Coast, Mauritania and Senegal.

Scherb said countries could capture a larger share of global mining investment by simplifying permitting processes and providing greater certainty around the rules governing projects.

“The capital is there,” Scherb said. “The question is which countries will create the stability and predictability needed to attract it.”

The competition comes as governments seek to increase domestic benefits from mining through taxes, royalties and local participation.

For investors, however, lengthy approvals or unpredictable regulatory changes can complicate project financing, delay development schedules and weaken the economics of investments that may take years to generate returns.

Africa competes with Latin America

Appian currently has three active investments in Africa and has exited three others. Its departures included projects in Burkina Faso and Tanzania, amid a coup and an election crisis, respectively.

The firm also has four active investments in Latin America, mainly in Brazil, where it continues to deploy capital.

A global mining portfolio

Appian Capital Advisory invests in metals, mining and natural resources through private capital funds focused on selected commodities and markets.

The firm manages about $5 billion in assets, according to company information, and operates across Latin America, North America, Australia and Africa, with a portfolio spanning multiple mining assets.

Its investments include Rosh Pinah Zinc in Namibia, Atlantic Nickel and Mineração Vale Verde in Brazil, and the Pine Point mining project in Canada.

The planned allocation to Africa would position the continent for a significant share of Appian’s prospective investment, although the ultimate deployment will depend on available opportunities and the regulatory conditions in each market.