Ghana’s cocoa production faces another difficult season, with output expected to fall by at least 16% as unpredictable weather threatens the country’s farms.

Farmers are now counting on improved rainfall to revive damaged crops and deliver a better harvest from March 2027, although the outlook remains uncertain.

The potential recovery comes after months of disrupted flowering and poor pod development, leaving some farmers with only a fraction of their usual production.

The outcome could have significant implications for Ghana’s cocoa supply following a season in which the country produced 771,000 metric tons.

Joseph Agbeko, a cocoa farmer, has harvested just five bags since the current season began, compared with 31 bags, equivalent to two tons, last season.

He is hoping recent rainfall will help revive production in the coming months, but the extent of any recovery remains unclear.

Weather damage threatens cocoa production

The damage has been uneven across Ghana’s cocoa-growing regions, with excessive rainfall and prolonged dry spells creating different problems for farmers.

Heavy rains have caused cocoa flowers to fall before developing into pods in some areas. Elsewhere, insufficient rainfall and extended periods of heat have left flowers withered and unable to produce fruit.

The Ghana Cooperative Cocoa Farmers and Marketing Association said visits to farms across four cocoa-growing regions revealed the contrasting effects of the weather.

Its administrator, Moses Djan Asiedu, said improved rainfall could encourage fruiting to resume, but the timing and intensity of subsequent weather conditions would determine whether production improves.

A particularly severe harmattan in January could also complicate the recovery, making it difficult to predict how much cocoa farmers will harvest from March.

Ghana’s cocoa output faces another setback

The production challenges come as Ghana prepares for another potentially weaker cocoa season. COCOBOD, the country’s cocoa regulator, projected in July that output would decline by at least 16%, citing the El Niño weather pattern and excessive rainfall during May and June.

The regulator has not provided an updated forecast, leaving the scale of the expected decline uncertain.

The Ghana Meteorological Agency has also warned that a strong El Niño could expose parts of the country to prolonged dry spells, raising further concerns about agricultural production.

March harvest offers a conditional recovery

Ghana produced 771,000 metric tons of cocoa last season, exceeding its target of 650,000 metric tons. COCOBOD has not announced a production target for the current season.

For farmers, the immediate priority is whether rainfall will be sufficient to restore flowering and pod development after months of weather-related damage.

Agbeko and other growers are looking toward March for signs of improvement, but the cooperative association has cautioned that a recovery is far from guaranteed.

The coming months will determine whether better rainfall can reverse some of the damage or whether Ghana’s cocoa industry faces a deeper production shortfall.