South Africa is preparing to keep a significant portion of its coal-fired power fleet running beyond its planned retirement dates as delays in gas projects threaten the country’s transition to alternative generation. The shift marks a setback for efforts to reduce reliance on coal at a time when many emerging economies are gradually cutting back on the fuel.

The country, which generates about 80 percent of its electricity from coal, had set out plans to shut roughly 8 gigawatts of coal capacity by 2030 under its latest Integrated Resource Plan. Those closures were meant to be matched by about 6 gigawatts of new gas-fired generation. However, much of that replacement capacity has been slowed by regulatory hurdles, financing challenges, and ongoing legal processes.

Eskom reviews asset lifespan extension

With projects behind schedule, officials at Eskom Holdings and say extending the life of aging coal plants is increasingly likely. Bheki Nxumalo, Eskom head of generation, said it is weighing keeping units online longer. He cited long lead times for equipment. “We are looking at it,” he said, noting gas turbines from Siemens and General Electric can take about five years to deliver. “Unless the order is in, the backlog is too high,” he added.

Eskom has also warned that its decommissioning plan depends heavily on new projects coming online as scheduled. In an emailed response, the utility said the retirement schedule under its IRP framework “hinges on all projects as envisaged … materializing on time.” The company has already moved to extend the lifespan of some stations, a decision first approved in 2024 to help stabilize supply during periods of severe power cuts.

Globally, coal use in electricity generation has been easing in several major markets. The International Energy Agency has reported declines in China and India in recent years. At the same time, shifts in global energy trade, including disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions around key shipping routes, have added volatility to gas supply and pricing.

South Africa extends coal supply agreements

South Africa’s energy transition has attracted international financing and long-term planning, but execution has proved more complicated than expected. Communities near coal operations raise concerns about air quality and health outcomes. Medical Research Council linked premature deaths to pollution around coal plants, citing particulate matter, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide.

Government officials have maintained support for coal during the transition period. At the recent expansion of Exxaro Resources’ Matla mine, Mineral Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe said coal remains central to employment and energy security. He also pointed to continued investment in research projects such as carbon-capture initiatives in Mpumalanga province.

The Matla mine supplies a corresponding Eskom power station, and the utility has signed coal supply agreements extending to 2043, well beyond earlier decommissioning plans for the facility, which began operations in 1979. Eskom has not confirmed a final retirement date, saying only that coal “can also be used in any other power station.”

Eskom gas-to-power faces delays

On the gas side, progress has been slow. Eskom’s Richards Bay gas-to-power project has faced legal setbacks after environmental groups successfully challenged its authorization process, forcing a review. A government-led procurement program for 3,000 megawatts of gas power from independent producers has also experienced repeated delays.

According to the Independent Power Producer Office, the current timetable would see bidders announced in August, with financial close expected about a year later and commercial operations beginning roughly three years after that. For now, officials say South Africa’s reliance on imported gas adds further uncertainty, especially as global supply conditions remain unstable.