Pakistan does not grow a single kilogram of tea domestically, yet its citizens consume an average of one kilogram per capita annually, compared to a global average of 0.79 kilograms. This deep reliance on foreign crops helped Pakistan add 7.22 million kilograms year-on-year to reach a record 56.47 million kilograms in the first quarter of 2026.

Pakistan imports 39 percent of Kenyan tea

As Kenya’s largest buyer, Pakistan accounted for a 39 percent share of total Kenyan tea exports during the period. Kenya supplies 70 percent of Pakistan’s total tea imports, a trading relationship worth $557 million in 2024. This massive volume is underpinned by dominant household brands like Tapal, which built its market leadership on Kenyan leaves, and Unilever’s Lipton. For these companies, there is no realistic substitute to meet domestic demand.

The surge in Pakistani demand comes as overall tea exports from Kenya grew 6 percent in the first three months of 2026 to 144.46 million kilograms. Hidden in that gain, however, is a destination shift that shows how an industry navigates increasingly complex geopolitical realities. Ten destinations absorb over 82 percent of Kenya’s monthly tea exports, and most of them are currently at war, under sanctions, or managing acute economic stress.

Sudan trade ban slashes tea volumes

Sudan represents the starkest loss for Kenyan exporters in the first quarter, with volumes collapsing 69 percent to 1.79 million kilograms. This drop is the direct consequence of a trade ban Khartoum imposed in March 2025. The diplomatic rupture occurred after Nairobi hosted the Rapid Support Forces, the paramilitary group at the center of Sudan’s civil war.

Jordan and China compounded the damage to first-quarter volumes. Shipments to Jordan shed 71 percent to 0.86 million kilograms, part of a broader unyielding pressure on Middle East trade corridors under the weight of regional conflict. China’s decline is less dramatic in cause but arguably more permanent in nature, with volumes falling 51 percent to 1.22 million kilograms. Beijing buys Kenyan tea for blending rather than direct consumption, and its appetite for bulk black crush-tear-curl leaves remains limited and sensitive to price changes.

Shipping hazards reshape global supply chains

Other markets also showed signs of growth during the first three months of the year. Egypt grew by 5.91 million kilograms, while the UK added 1.34 million kilograms. Yemen surged 140 percent to 2.64 million kilograms during the quarter. This sudden increase reflects rerouted trade flowing through Omani intermediaries as Gulf shipping lanes and traditional trade routes grew more treacherous for international commercial vessels.