Nigeria’s trade surplus widened to $9.5 billion in the second quarter of 2026, roughly doubling from the same period a year earlier, as lower fuel imports and stronger exports of crude oil and raw materials improved the country’s trade position.

The increase comes as Nigeria’s economy also picks up. Gross domestic product grew 4.43 percent from a year earlier in the second quarter, the fastest pace in five years. Higher oil prices, following the war involving Iran, along with increased exports, have helped support the broader expansion.

Nigeria shifts from fuel imports

According to Semafor, the latest trade figures also highlight the growing impact of the Dangote Refinery on Nigeria’s oil trade. The refinery, which began operations in September 2024, reached full capacity this year, helping reduce the country’s long-standing reliance on imported refined petroleum products.

For years, Nigeria has exported crude oil while importing much of the fuel used at home. The shift toward domestic refining is beginning to change that pattern, with the Dangote refinery now supplying a larger share of the country’s fuel needs and reducing the value of some imports.

Oil exports lift Nigeria trade balance

The effect is visible in the latest trade figures. A drop in fuel imports, combined with higher crude oil and raw-material exports, helped push the trade surplus higher in the quarter. Higher oil prices also lifted the value of Nigeria’s exports. The increase came as tensions involving Iran pushed global oil prices higher, giving Africa’s largest crude oil producer a boost from its main export.

Still, Nigeria’s fuel import bill remains significant. The country continues to allow petroleum product imports, with the downstream oil regulator arguing that imports are needed to maintain competition in the local market. That means the rise in domestic refining has not ended Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel. But the balance is changing as more refining capacity comes onstream.

Nigeria’s refining capacity set to rise

Dangote plans to increase the refinery’s output to 1.4 million barrels a day, about twice its current planned capacity. If those plans are carried out, Nigeria could rely more heavily on domestic refining and devote a larger share of its crude production to exports or local processing.

For now, the second-quarter figures offer a clear sign of how changes in the oil industry are feeding into Nigeria’s trade accounts. The combination of fewer fuel imports, stronger commodity exports and higher oil prices has helped produce a much larger trade surplus while the wider economy records its strongest growth in five years.